Interviews with Digital Media Thought Leaders
Consumers Want Internet on TV
Podcast Audio | Posted by Phil Leigh on November 21, 2009
Phil Leigh
If you would like to learn just how rapidly consumers are gaining interest in obtaining unlimited Internet access on their TVs, this podcast is for you.
We have long predicted that consumers will ultimately want unlimited Internet access of their TVs. It enables them to watch any Internet video in a lean-back viewing experience from their living room sofa. Moreover, given a remote mouse and keyboard, it empowers them to use the TV as a giant window into the Internet for any purpose, including e-mail, online shopping, or Web surfing.
Since at least the start of this year we have repeatedly noted that consumers are discovering how to get such access by connecting their laptop computers to their TVs. It’s an “under the radar trend” not officially promoted by any of the computer makers, but appears to be getting exponentially more fashionable. In short, we believe the trend will become a “forcing factor” leading set manufacturers to offer either (1) browser-centric TVs, or (2) TVs with an abundance of free applications permitting users to watch videos from the associated Websites.
The growing popularity is partly inferred by way of proxy. Specifically, last March we posted an instructional video on YouTube describing “How to Connect PC-to-TV”. Initially we were getting less than 30 views per day, but in October the daily average was about 135. That translates to a 26% compounded monthly increase despite a summer slow-down. Put another way, traffic was doubling about every three months. If the trend continues, daily viewership could rise to 270 by the end of January and to over 500 by the end of next April.
When new factors obtain a green-field opportunity, they tend to grow exponentially during the early periods. Examples include bacteria in a petri dish, influenza virus among people, members of a Ponzi scheme, and nuclear chain reactions. Technologies that eventually become mass market standards also exhibit exponential growth in early adopter phases. Examples include, radio, television, railroads, automobiles, portable phones, air travel, and many more.
In our analysis, the growth in consumers attaching laptops to their TVs is also likely to be exponential. Whether the function is 26%-per-month, or some other pace, remains to be seen. One possibility is illustrated by the chart below which projects the viewership of our instructional video based upon the best-fitting exponential equation provided by Microsoft Excel software.
Growth in Video Views: "How to Connect PC-to-TV"
The exponential trend-line is defined by: Y = 1,059e (exp.)0.1683x
where Y is the number of monthly views and X is the number of months since February, 2009. The equation predicts that next March our instructional video will have 9,400 views as compared to 4,150 in October and 811 last March.
While the increasing viewership of our instructional video is only a proxy, the numbers are large enough for statistical inference. In short, consumer interest in getting unlimited Internet access on their TVs is rapidly increasing.
It is important to understand that others posted similar instructional videos at about the same time, meaning that ours is not the only proxy. For example, this one had traffic growth that was about 70% faster thereby implying that consumer interest in unrestricted Internet access at their TVs is increasing even more quickly than the above graph indicates.
Categories: Podcast Audio
Tags: Connect-Computer-to-TV, Future-of-Television, Internet-Movies, Internet-video, Phil-Leigh, television, Web-2.0, YouTube
Permalink | Email This |
Leave a Comment
If you would like to make a comment, please fill out the form below.
TV+keyboard+internet?
it’s been done: it essentially failed.
IPTV is a different beat
PVR+LCD+internet loosed from the evil shackles of unamerican drm is a step in the right direction
OpenSouce is winning this race.