Interviews with Digital Media Thought Leaders

Inventing the Future at Apple

Podcast Audio | Posted by Phil Leigh on January 30, 2010

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Phil Leigh

As Xerox PARC pioneer Alan Kay once put it, “The best way to predict the future is to invent it”. Much like it did with the iPod and iPhone, Apple again invented the future when it introduced the iPad tablet computer in January.

From one perspective the iPad is an evolutionary extension of the iPod Touch. It uses the same operating system and user interface. Consumers familiar with the iPod Touch will quickly get the hang of the iPad. Neither device has a hard drive, or unpacks out of the box with a keyboard. Both can use the approximate 140,000 apps available at the Apps Store. The most obvious difference is the iPad screen which is about seven times larger.

However, the larger screen size is also the prime feature enabling the iPad to define a new product category. Consider the following points.

First, the iPad is likely to be the first computer to establish a versatile touch screen as an industry standard. The 75 million iPod Touch and iPhone users recognize that it is much more comprehensive than the rigid touch screens provided by special-function equipment such as ATMs and airline check-in terminals. It obsoletes the mouse. More importantly, it portends an equally significant evolutionary advance in computing as when the mouse-icon interface superseded the command-line prompt.

Second, metaphorically the iPad is a hand-held window pane into the Internet Cloud. The interface versatility enables users to surf the Net in a natural way merely by using their fingers. It is the nearly ideal device to lift Cloud Computing to the next level. The larger screen provides a bigger virtual keyboard thereby enabling far more user interactivity. Much like a QWERTY typist can outpace an author writing in long-hand, the unit will increase a user’s propensity to interact with nearly all Cloud services ranging from e-mail to online commercial transactions.

Consider how the iPad as a general purpose device might be superior to Amazon’s Kindle for reading an e-book. When an e-book reader discovers a topic of interest within the text being read, a Kindle can provide no added context. While it offers word definitions, readers cannot augment their knowledge of a topic mentioned only incidentally within the text. By contrast, an iPad reader of the same e-book can pause and browse the Web for more information and return to the book once satisfied with the added context.

For example, suppose a reader of a novel set in California learns from the story that the name of San Francisco prior to the Mexican Cession was Yerba Buena. If read on a Kindle he might get a definition for Yerba Buena. In contrast, with the iPad he can access the Wikipedia and other Websites to get the more complete history of San Francisco, the Mexican Cession, Gaspar de Portola, and even learn that the iPad was introduced at the Yerba Buena Center, and so forth.

Third, the device will create new business opportunities on the Net, or bring-of-age those that have not yet “crossed the chasm”. One example is The New York Times which has been struggling to generate adequate revenues from digital versions of its newspaper. Although The Times is available on Kindle, some users complain that the reading experience is unnatural.

In contrast, The Times sent its Senior Vice President of Digital Operations to demonstrate reading the newspaper on the iPad when Apple introduced the unit. He showed how to resize text, zoom in-and-out, and watch videos appearing alongside text. More importantly, he concluded by saying “This is just the beginning.” Evidently The Times expects more of the iPad than the Kindle. As a result, the device may enable the company to refine their digital business model thereby “crossing the chasm” into mainstream demand.

Fourth, the iPad marks the first time that Apple incorporated its own silicon chips into a hardware design. Over the past decade it’s become increasingly evident that such capabilities enabled Apple to surge ahead of competitors. Chip integration fortifies such advantages even further. When Apple acquired a small semiconductor company in 2008, Steve Jobs commented that the merger would enable Apple products to run increasingly sophisticated software. Evidently, the iPad is the first example.

Fifth, iPad pricing is aggressive ranging from $500 to $830. Many industry observers had expected entry level prices of $800 to $1,000. In reality, the low-end iPad is only $100 more than the top-end iPod Touch.

Sixth, higher end models will work on both cellular and Wi-Fi networks. That means they will provide nearly continual access to the Web. Moreover, AT&T agrees to offer an unlimited data-only cellular subscription for $30 monthly without a lengthy contract. Since the iPad has speakers and a microphone, presumably users will be able to make VoIP phone calls with software such as Skype.

Despite its strengths, the iPad also has some weaknesses. For example, it cannot run multiple programs simultaneously although it is a common practice on other computers. As a result, it cannot accommodate common computer-user habits such as listening to Internet Radio while preparing a document with a word processing program. It also does not have an on-board camera for video phone calls and conferencing over VoIP services. However, as the New York Times executive implied, the early models are only the beginning and we expect the shortcomings will be addressed in the future.

In times of change, learners inherit the Earth while the rest of us eat dirt.